Why UConn will win the national championship
Why UConn will win the national championship
The Huskies have all the pieces to win it all this year.
Welcome to the UConn WBB Weekly, a recap of everything that happened in the world of UConn women’s basketball over the past week from the team that runs The UConn Blog and Storrs Central.
Subscribe to get the Weekly in your inbox every Thursday and if you enjoy it, make sure to send it to all your fellow Husky diehards.
Top Links
From The UConn Blog and Storrs Central:
UConn assistant Shea Ralph leaving team after family member tests positive for COVID-19
Former UConn women’s basketball star Morgan Tuck announces retirement from WNBA
UConn women’s basketball head coach Geno Auriemma tests positive for COVID-19
Notebook: Geno Auriemma has “no idea” how he contracted COVID-19
‘Our program is our program’: How Geno Auriemma’s absence will affect UConn women’s basketball
UConn women’s basketball earns No. 1 seed in 2021 NCAA Tournament
Breaking down UConn’s River Walk region of the 2021 NCAA Tournament
UConn women’s basketball’s Paige Bueckers named AP First Team All-American
Last week’s Weekly:
Elsewhere
In the news
George Washington has parted ways with head coach Jen Rizzotti after five seasons.
Former UConn center Kelly (Schumacher) Raimon has joined the Dallas Wings’ staff.
Why UConn women’s basketball will win the national championship
In the two weeks before the NCAA Tournament, we’ll have a two-part series looking at why UConn women’s basketball will (and won’t) win the national championship this season. Last week, we examined what weaknesses could sink the Huskies’ chances at a 12th national title.
This week, we’ll look at why they’re the favorites.
In March, one player can carry a team a long way and for that reason alone, UConn women’s basketball is in good shape entering the NCAA Tournament with Paige Bueckers.
The freshman has been sensational during her first season in Storrs, leading the Huskies in points, assists, steals, and 3-point percentage while doing so with remarkable consistency, scoring in double figures in all but one game.
Bueckers has also been next to unstoppable in crunch time. In the last five minutes or overtime of UConn’s three games decided by single digits (Tennessee, Arkansas, and South Carolina), Bueckers scored 24 of the team’s 30 points while shooting 9-10 from the field, including 4-4 from three. As we saw against both Tennessee and South Carolina, a bad shooting night doesn’t stop Bueckers from coming up big the end of a game.
After years without a go-to scorer, UConn finally has one in Bueckers. When the Huskies desperately need a basket, Bueckers has proven she wants the ball every time.
The Huskies are also as deep as they’ve been in a long time with seven players averaging over 17.0 minutes per game (excluding Anna Makurat, whose role is unclear coming off injury).
Even if Bueckers has an off night, plenty of other players can pick up the slack, whether it be Evina Westbrook and Christyn Williams on the outside or Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa on the inside.
Aubrey Griffin is also capable of exploding for 15+ points in any game despite only averaging 6.6 points per game. Not only do the Huskies have one of the best offensive players in the nation in Bueckers, but they also have a myriad of options to go with her.
UConn isn’t overly reliant on one method of scoring, either. In the first two games of the Big East Tournament, the Huskies went 6-25 from beyond the arc but dominated in the paint. In the final, UConn made 9-18 from three. Unlike last year, the Huskies don’t need to make shots to win games, especially with the combination of Nelson-Ododa and Edwards in the paint.
The offense isn’t much of a problem, though. While there have been some rough nights scoring the basketball throughout the season, the Huskies have typically found a way to get the job done one way or another.
If the confetti falls on UConn at the end of the season, it’ll be thanks to the defense.
Back in January, Arkansas torched the Huskies to the tune of 90 points — 37 of which were courtesy of Chelsea Dungee. One of UConn’s main problems was it struggled to slow down an opposing team’s top player with not only Dungee going off but Seton Hall’s Lauren Park-Lane racking up 29 points and St. John’s Leilani Correa totaling 33.
That finally changed with the emergence of Christyn Williams late in the year. Out of nowhere, the junior transformed into a lockdown defender, holding her Correa, Maddie Siegrist and Selena Lott to a combined 12 points over three games in the Big East Tournament.
“We’re a championship team if Christyn Williams plays like that,” Auriemma said after UConn’s win over Villanova. “I don’t know if we can be if she doesn’t play like that, but if she plays like that, we’re a championship team.”
Earlier in the year, Auriemma said his team thought they were playing good defense because opponents missed a lot of open shots. Now, the Huskies are forcing teams into a lot of bad looks and many missed shots.
Over the three games in the Big East Tournament, UConn didn’t allow more than 41 points and held teams under 30 percent shooting in every game. That’s not just a small sample size, either. Since Feb. 10, only one team scored over 50 points on the Huskies while none made more than 40 percent of their shots.
All this is a long-winded way of saying that the Huskies are peaking at the right time, something they showcased with their dominant performance in the Big East Tournament.
“I feel like we’re playing our best basketball right now,” Paige Bueckers said after the win over Villanova.
Ever since the loss to Arkansas, UConn has steadily improved — faster at some points than others, but the arrow has consistently pointed. The Huskies have all the pieces to win a national championship: A superstar on offense in Bueckers with plenty of firepower to back her up. It has a lights-out defense, boosted by a lockdown defender in Williams. It also has a hall of fame coach at the helm, whether that be Auriemma or Chris Dailey.
There’s plenty that can still go wrong for the Huskies (which we detailed last week) — but bet against them at your own risk.
Best of social media
UConn’s excited for March:
Nice tribute to Chris Dailey from Breanna Stewart:
AP Poll
UConn (—)
Stanford (—)
NC State (—)
Texas A&M (—)
Baylor (+1)
UCONN can win it all....but it's not perfectly clear road. First, they have to play well. That means their outside shooting has to be great, their defense, AND they have to keep out of Foul Trouble.
The team can afford stupid cheap fouls by Olivia when they're playing lesser teams, but when they move through to the tougher (and maybe bigger teams) they will not be able to afford not having her and Edwards. Another factor is keeping everyone healthy. An injury to a key player can derail the entire effort...or make it extremely more difficult. Lastly, anything can happen. Many of these teams that are in now may not stay in, as if one test comes back positive they're out.