Opponent Preview: Villanova Wildcats

The Big East tournament final will feature a rematch of the Huskies lone conference loss this season

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

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UConn women’s basketball will face Villanova in the Big East Tournament finals Monday night in a rematch of its lone conference loss this season. The Wildcats, the No. 2 seed in the Big East Tournament, defeated St John’s in the quarterfinals and Seton Hall in the semifinals on Saturday evening to reach the championship game.

Villanova’s success this season has run through junior Maddy Siegrist, who was named the 2022 Big East Player of the Year. Siegrist dropped 17 points and 12 rebounds on the Huskies in the last meeting and leads the Wildcats in scoring and on the glass. She’s among the best players in the country this season, ranking in the top 10 for both total Win Shares and Win Shares per 40 minutes on the season.

Siegrist’s offensive game is versatile and she can score the basketball in a variety of ways. She excels the most inside, but is also a capable perimeter shooter and ranks in the top one percent of the country for points per play despite being a high volume scorer. In fact, Siegrist leads the Big East in both points per play and usage rate. Her 17 points against the Huskies in the upset win are actually the fewest she’s scored since Villanova’s November 12th loss to Maryland.

In addition to Siegrist, Brianna Herlihy and Lior Garzon both average double figures for the Wildcats. Garzon was particularly a problem in the Huskies’ earlier loss, where she went 5-10 from deep. Herlihy as had a double-double against UConn in their last meeting and has been fantastic for Villanova so far in the Big East Tournament. She set a new career high with 17 rebounds in the quarterfinals and followed it up with 17 points against Seton Hall in the semifinals.

More than the individual players themselves, what drives Villanova’s offensive success is its ability to move and share the basketball. Over 65 percent of the Wildcats field goals on the season have been assisted (16th in the nation). UConn will need to do a better job defensively of disrupting the passing lanes than it did in the last meeting.

That said, this is also a very different UConn team than the one that lost to the Wildcats a few weeks back. The depth the Huskies displayed in the opening rounds should help them in the championship.

While UConn has played nine deep with no player eclipsing 30 minutes in their first two games, Villanova’s starters will be working on tired legs. The Wildcats played just seven players against Seton Hall with four of five starters playing over 35 minutes. Siegrist played 39 minutes on Saturday and 35 minutes in the quarterfinals.

Keys to the game for the Huskies

Containing Siegrist: Guarding Siegrist is the biggest defensive challenge UConn will face in the Big East Tournament. Christyn Williams locked her down in last year’s postseason meeting, allowing her just three points on 1-10 shooting. Siegrist is a far better player than she was last season and holding her to three points is not a reasonable expectation. Still, the matchup between Siegrist and likely Williams will be important — and also a good indication of how the Huskies will defend the other elite players that cross their path in March.

Continuing the defensive energy from the first two game: UConn’s defense has continued to excel in the opening two rounds of the Big East Tournament. Villanova has struggled against a high level of pressure on the defensive end.

In UConn’s loss earlier this season, the Huskies cut the final deficit down from nearly 20 to just three points when they ramped up their defensive intensity down the stretch. Wildcat turnovers allowed UConn to get back in the game. The same was true in Villanova’s semifinal against Seton Hall where the Pirates cut a sizeable lead down to four before eventually falling short. If UConn brings the defensive energy we’ve seen over the last few games, it could quickly blow this game open.

Rebounding: What ultimately cost UConn the game in February was its performance on the glass. The Huskies need to be aggressive on the boards in this game, but if Aaliyah Edwards continues to play the way she has in the first two rounds, that shouldn’t be a problem. Villanova won’t have a good answer to match her physicality underneath.

Predicted results

Per Her Hoop Stats, the Huskies have a 91.0 percent chance of getting the win with a predicted final score of 71.3 - 55.6. It is worth noting that over their last four games since Bueckers’ return, the Huskies have outperformed Her Hoop Stats expected margin by an average of over 18 points. The Huskies 20-point win over Marquette in the semifinals was five points above the prediction.